Israeli exit polls suggest no clear winner in pivotal general election
Exit polls suggest there is no clear winner of Israel's pivotal general election, with neither veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor former military chief Gadi Eisenkot on track to secure a majority.
Two Israeli broadcasters projected that Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties in his "Change Bloc" would win 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, as would Netanyahu's Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies. A third broadcaster's poll gave Netanyahu a lead of three seats.Much will depend on the role played by the two Arab parties, which were projected to win a record 18 or 19 seats.Voter turnout on Tuesday was the highest in decades.It stood at 77.7% when polls closed at 22:00 local time (20:00 GMT), which was the highest at that hour since 1999, the Central Elections Committee said.Official results will start to be published overnight, but an estimated 600,000 absentee ballots cast mostly by military personnel - around 10% of the total number of votes - will not be fully counted until Thursday.Once the final results are confirmed, and following consultations with all the political factions, Israel's president will invite the party leader whom he believes has the best chance of success to form a governing coalition - a process that could take weeks.If they fail, then ultimately there would have to be another election.
At the headquarters of Eisenkot's Yashar party in Tel Aviv, his supporters cheered and chanted "Bibi, go home!" after the initial exit polls published by public broadcaster Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 projected that his bloc would emerge as the biggest in the Knesset, with between 52 and 53 seats, compared to 50 seats for Netanyahu's governing coalition.
Eisenkot said they had "made history" and promised to "ensure that the people's decision is translated into a Zionist government: stable and good for all of Israel's citizens".His ally in the Beyachad party, former prime minister Yair Lapid, said Netanyahu's bloc had suffered a "crushing defeat".However, there was no sign of surrender at the Jerusalem headquarters of Netanyahu's Likud party, which was projected to be the largest party in parliament.Supporters there told the BBC that they were nervous. "It's not over until it's over, but I'm sweating," Itzik said.
Netanyahu's ally, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, said celebrations on the left were "premature", while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told supporters of his far-right Jewish Power party to pray that the final results would lead to a "full-on right-wing government".
In the early hours of Wednesday, the broadcasters updated their exit polls. Kan and Channel 13's projections showed the blocs tied on 51 seats, while Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 seats and Eisenkot's 49.Later, Netanyahu appeared at Likud's headquarters and declared in a speech that his right-wing bloc had a "great majority". He also called for the formation of "a strong, right-wing national government".The two Arab parties - the United Arab List and the Joint List - were projected to win several extra seats in parliament following a reportedly strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who account for about a fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.They are emerging as the kingmakers in the election, but only one party has openly backed working with them in government."I hope that the numbers will work out and we, the Change Bloc and the UAL, can ensure that there are 61 Knesset seats," United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said.After the 2021 elections, Abbas's party was part of a governing coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which lasted a year before collapsing.The chairman of the Joint List, Yousef Jabareen, warned that the grouping "cannot be ignored under any political scenario".Tuesday's election was the first since the deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza,Lebanon and Iran.
It was also seen by Israelis as one of the most consequential in the country's history, because it could decide not just their leadership but whether the country continues on its current hard-line, religious-nationalist trajectory.
Key campaign issues included accountability for the security failures that led to the 7 October attacks, the conduct of regional wars, how to share the growing burden of military service, judicial reforms, and Israel's international standing.
Outside a polling station in an opposition stronghold in northern Tel Aviv, campaigners young and old were out in force, using every last moment to win that extra vote.
Zivit Abramson, 88, told the BBC that she had voted for Eisenkot because Netanyahu was "ruining this country". "He's all about himself, only about himself," she added.
Elsewhere, Claire Tugendhaft said she had voted for Netanyahu "because I think he's the best man in the country to lead the country towards the outside world".The prime minister and his government allies urged their supporters to head to the polls with warnings about a surge in turnout among left-wing and Arab voters."If you don't vote, we'll wake up tomorrow with a left-wing government, Arab parties, extreme Islam, and we'll lose the country," Netanyahu was filmed saying.
Likud and several other right-wing parties asked for voting hours to be extended beyond 22:00 local time - a move many of their opponents saw as a sign of growing desperation.
The Central Elections Committee ultimately rejected their request, saying that "the current circumstances do not justify an extension" and that the high turnout "reflects strong public engagement in the democratic process".
- Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says right-wing parties have won a “decisive majority” among the Zionist public and calls for the formation of a “national right-wing government”.
- His speech came as exit polls from Tuesday’s election showed no outright winner. They suggested Netanyahu’s coalition is slightly ahead of or tied with the main Jewish-led opposition alliance, though neither side can secure a majority.
Addressing supporters after midnight, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, who leads a bloc of opposition parties, both expressed confidence that they will lead Israel’s next government. Vote counting could take days.
Israelis voted in the largest numbers in a generation on Tuesday, and exit polls suggested that a bloc of opposition parties was roughly even with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance in what many described as a make-or-break moment for the nation.
The election did not appear to immediately determine who would lead the country next, even as the leading candidates — Mr. Netanyahu and the leader of a coalition of opposition parties, Gadi Eisenkot — struck tones of victory in late-night addresses to supporters. Vote counting was expected to last days, followed by a potentially lengthy effort by the blocs to assemble a parliamentary majority.
The exit polls, if accurate, suggest that neither Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc nor the one led by Mr. Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son was killed in the Gaza war, will be able to form a government without relying on two Arab parties that were projected to win as many as 17 or 18 seats in Parliament. Mr. Netanyahu effectively ruled out including them in a governing coalition, and Mr. Eisenkot and his partners have balked at the idea, too.
One option analysts are already weighing is whether Mr. Netanyahu, who has led the most far-right government in Israeli history, could join with Mr. Eisenkot or others in the opposition to form a unity government. But a unity government would face major obstacles, given how deeply Mr. Eisenkot’s voters despise Mr. Netanyahu, and because the two would have to agree on which of them would serve as prime minister. Mr. Netanyahu is unlikely to give up control, while Mr. Eisenkot has called the prime minister unfit to lead Israel.
Much remained unclear early Wednesday morning in Israel. Making matters even murkier, Israel’s exit polls have a spotty history of accuracy, particularly in tight races.
Mr. Eisenkot appeared onstage past midnight at his post-election party and attempted to strike a tone of triumph — as well as defiance toward Mr. Netanyahu.
“Tonight we got the answer: The public wants change,” he said.
Mr. Netanyahu addressed his supporters a few hours later, invoking his relationship with President Trump and repeating his pre-election talking points about removing the threat of Iran. He sounded triumphant, saying it was clear that Likud had emerged as the largest party in Israel and mocking months of pre-election polls that showed his party trailing behind that of Mr. Eisenkot.“We must form a strong right-wing USA 
Here’s what else to know:
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Arab parties: The exit polls pointed to at least one surprise in projecting that two Arab parties would win as many as 17 or 18 seats in the 120-seat Parliament. That would be their strongest showing ever, and potentially give them an important role in forming the next government. Read more ›
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War fears: Amid reports that Mr. Netanyahu has been pushing for renewed attacks on Iran, Mr. Eisenkot warned him in his speech to supporters not to abuse his power as caretaker prime minister to influence the process of forming a new government. “Netanyahu, don’t dare use Israel’s security for your political needs,” he said.
It’s nearly 4 a.m. in Israel, and there is no clear winner. News is expected to slow down in the coming hours, but pick up again in the morning, when party leaders are expected to begin discussing potential alliances. The official results are still a long way off: Election authorities have so far counted nearly a million votes, about a fifth of the total votes cast.
In a nod to the fact he is now a caretaker prime minister pending the formation of a new government, Netanyahu said the exit polls were only a preview and he was waiting for official results. Yet he sounded triumphant, if not quite saying he had won the election. He said it was clear that his Likud party had emerged as the largest party in the Parliament, and he mocked months of pre-election polls that showed Likud trailing behind the party of his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot.
One updated exit poll has given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc a small edge over the opposition. The exit polls by Israel’s three largest television networks at first projected a small lead for Gadi Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu alliance, but now one has Netanyahu and his allies ahead, and the other two show the two blocs even. Exit polls have not always been reliable indicators of the result, and the official count is far from complete. But it appears that neither side has a clear path to forming a government without the help of the Arab parties, unless one or more parties defects from one of the main blocs.
Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main rival, took the stage in the early hours of Wednesday morning like a winner, embracing members of his Yashar party who were waiting for him there and waving to an enthusiastic crowd of flag-waving supporters who hailed him as the next prime minister.
Although Eisenkot’s path to forming a government is far from clear, he gave what amounted to a victory speech for the opposition bloc, declaring, “We’ve made history.” Describing the election as a referendum on who should lead Israel in the coming years, he added: “Tonight we got the answer. The public wants change.”
In an unusual and pointed message, Eisenkot told the country’s security chiefs and public servants that Netanyahu now heads a transitional government that has lost the confidence of the people. “Stand strong and firm against any attempt to challenge you,” Eisenkot said. “You have my clear backing.” Amid reports that Netanyahu has been pushing for renewed attacks on Iran, Eisenkot said, “Netanyahu, don’t dare use Israel’s security for your political needs.”
Two Israeli news channels have recently updated their exit polls, which now show a tie between the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that of his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot. Neither bloc, however, has enough seats to form a government without the support of Arab parties. Earlier versions of the same exit polls had shown small leads for the opposition alliance. The official vote count is still too preliminary to draw any conclusions, and counting will take days.
One of the most striking results from the election in Israel on Tuesday was the unusually strong showing by two leading Arab parties, whose voters turned out in record numbers to express their opposition to the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The final results have not been announced, but a range of exit polls conducted by Israeli broadcasters suggest that two of the parties — the socially conservative United Arab List, or Raam, and the left-wing Joint List — may have won a historically large number of seats in parliament and an important role in the formation of the country’s next government.
Scores of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters and lawmakers from his Likud party are gathered at the party’s election-night headquarters, in a conference hall in Jerusalem. It’s past 1:30 a.m., and some of the crowd here is ecstatic, waiting for the prime minister to come and speak onstage. Activists are wearing “Make Israel Great Again” baseball hats and throwing the party’s voting slips like confetti. But others, including party officials, acknowledged to me their path to forming a coalition is narrow, and feelings here are mixed.
Bezalel Smotrich, the current finance minister and leader of the far-right Religious Zionism party, focused his post-election speech on delegitimizing the predominantly Arab parties whose support could help the anti-Netanyahu bloc form a government. “Parties that are unable to condemn the massacre of Oct. 7 and are not willing to declare Hamas as a terrorist organization are not legitimate actors in Israeli politics,” Smotrich told his supporters.
Naftali Bennett, who leads a party in the alliance opposing Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, said the sitting prime minister had lost the election. In a fiery televised address to a gathering of supporters, he tied Netanyahu to the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s worst security failure in decades. “The government of Oct. 7 will go home,” he said.
Not reflected in exit polls are hundreds of thousands of ballots cast at special polling stations, including on military bases, in hospitals, prisons, and embassies. In the previous election, those votes leaned toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. This year, the election authorities estimated that roughly 600,000 such votes would be cast, accounting for about 10 percent of eligible voters. Results from those ballots are not expected to be announced before Thursday.
Posted on 2026/10/28 09:44 AM